Model Hyper Parameters

Training dates 2016-09-01 to 2019-12-30

Transformations

Channel Diminishing Returns Shape Decay rate
TV log 0.98
Digital 0.9 0.3
SEM Brand log 0.4
SEM Non-Brand 0.9 0.4
Social 0.9 0.6
App 0.9 0.93

Model Performance

\(R^2\) = 0.9749618

MAPE = 2.47%

MAPE (Test) = 2.75%

RMSE = 462,689

RMSE (Test) = 492,347

Estimate t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -5912360.44 * -1.729 0.084
tv 947.433 * 1.598 0.110
semBR 14704.205 * 1.645 0.100
semNB 13.156 4.536 0.000
app 7.446 7.912 0.000
social 28.582 10.335 0.000
digital 15.682 3.586 0.000
email_marketing -0.019 * -0.659 0.510
email_operational 0.145 7.002 0.000
email_savedsearch 0.146 10.572 0.000
SEO_bigcity 8308646.149 2.366 0.018
SEO_hdp -86569.851 * -0.076 0.939
push_android -0.033 -3.159 0.002
push_ios 0.125 8.878 0.000
nonbrand_queries 51.248 13.586 0.000

*Not significant effect

Lift Analysis

Lift is the expected contribution of the channel to the overall prediction. “If we removed the channel, what percent of total Visits would we lose?”
2017 2018 2019
(Intercept) -44% -37.9% -32.7%
tv 4% 3.1% 2.8%
semBR 2% 1.4% 1.2%
semNB 2% 2.3% 1.9%
app 4% 4.7% 6.3%
social 6% 6.2% 6.9%
digital 1% 1.4% 1.6%
email_marketing 0% -0.1% -0.1%
email_operational 5% 2.6% 3.3%
email_savedsearch 4% 5.6% 4.9%
SEO_bigcity 61% 52.6% 45.1%
SEO_hdp -1% -0.5% -0.4%
push_android -1% -0.8% -1.0%
push_ios 2% 2.9% 4.7%
nonbrand_queries 42% 35.3% 32.1%

CPA Analysis

date tv semBR semNB app social digital
2016-09-01 $0.16 $0.04 $0.13 $0.02 $0.04 $0.11
2017-01-01 $0.23 $0.04 $0.13 $0.02 $0.04 $0.12
2018-01-01 $0.26 $0.04 $0.13 $0.03 $0.04 $0.12
2019-01-01 $0.21 $0.05 $0.13 $0.03 $0.04 $0.13

Error Plot

Variable Analysis

Variable Correlation

Media Marginal Plots

Variable plots

Owned

## [1] "email_marketing"   "email_operational" "email_savedsearch"
## [4] "push_android"      "push_ios"

Apendix

Seasonal Variable

Estimate t value Pr(>|t|)
christmas -2,222,067 -11.797 0.000
easter -1,316,868 -6.524 0.000
fathers -851,984 -4.203 0.000
halloween -924,387 -3.747 0.000
independence -2,235,368 -7.768 0.000
labor -521,534 -3.573 0.000
martin 314,085 * 1.121 0.262
memorial -1,472,329 -8.555 0.000
mothers -958,076 -4.697 0.000
new -1,271,231 -6.297 0.000
presidents 237,153 * 0.844 0.399
super -829,013 -2.938 0.003
thanksgiving -1,599,657 -11.482 0.000
valentines -1,380,763 -4.951 0.000
year2017 884,350 10.702 0.000
year2018 2,405,974 20.291 0.000
year2019 3,353,969 19.862 0.000
month2 1,090,472 13.320 0.000
month3 1,500,339 18.681 0.000
month4 1,956,723 21.389 0.000
month5 1,536,695 16.354 0.000
month6 1,152,536 11.416 0.000
month7 1,681,297 16.724 0.000
month8 1,598,737 17.838 0.000
month9 917,856 11.517 0.000
month10 788,983 9.028 0.000
month11 212,252 2.085 0.037
month12 -802,582 -8.478 0.000
wdayMonday 4,624 * 0.058 0.953
wdaySaturday -216,518 -3.090 0.002
wdaySunday -1,052 * -0.012 0.991
wdayThursday 44,640 * 0.654 0.513
wdayTuesday 44,313 * 0.598 0.550
wdayWednesday 113,255 * 1.604 0.109